Don't Bomb Iran

Category: Iran

  • US intel’s 2009 report on Iran

    The US director of National Intelligence recently  submitted his 2009_report on WMD to Congress.    The report  does not contradict the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate finding that Iran has no active nuclear weapons program… it finds:

    We continue to assess Iran is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons though we do not know whether Tehran eventually will decide to produce nuclear weapons.  Iran continues to develop a range of capabilities that could be applied to producing nuclear weapons, if a decision is made to do so.

    There are rumours that a new NIE on Iran  is in circulation but unlike the 2007 version, a declassified version will not be made public.

  • “Iran does have a nuclear weapons program”: Australian PM

    04 Feb 2010 KEVIN RUDD, PRIME MINISTER: We have exercised the powers under the act appropriately. Iran does have a nuclear weapons program. We are party to international obligations. We exercise those obligations because we believe we must play the role of a responsible international citizen.

    KAREN BARLOW: Liberal Senator Julian McGauran has got his own ideas, suggesting an international force bomb Iran.

  • Neutron initiator – smoking gun or forgery?

    The Times in London recently published a major  story about a document showing Iran is researching neutron initiators – smoking gun proof of a nuclear weapons program if it’s genuine.    Intelligence agencies and the IAEA have known about the document for years and are not sure if it is a fake.  NY Times story below:

    Nuclear Memo in Persian Puzzles Spy Agencies

    By WILLIAM J. BROAD and DAVID E. SANGER
    Published: December 15, 2009

    For many months now, American and European intelligence agencies have been trading theories about a spare, two-page document written in Persian that, if genuine, would strongly suggest that scientists in Iran were p

    But like so many pieces of evidence in the West’s confrontation with Tehran, the neatly written memorandum, laying out the next steps of a complex scientific process, raises as many questions as it answers.

    Intelligence officials say they have yet to authenticate the document, which describes research Iran would need to conduct on an advanced technology to detonate a nuclear weapon, if it was to develop one. Even if the paper is genuine, they say, it is unclear if it provides new insights into the state of Iran’s weapons research.

    Diplomats raised the possibility that the publication of the memo on The Times of London Web site late Sunday could be part of an effort to raise international alarm over Iran’s intentions or progress in developing nuclear weapons capacity.

    …

    “This information’s been sloshing around for well over a year,” said one American official, who insisted on anonymity because he was discussing sensitive intelligence information. “It’s not new to the intelligence people. They’ve taken account of it. If, in fact, the document’s on the level, it shows the Iranians at some point were interested in testing an initiator. That’s not a warhead or the core of a bomb. It’s another reminder — as if one were needed — that the Iranians have a lot of explaining to do when it comes to things nuclear.”

  • Bolton suggests Israeli nuclear attack on Iran

    “So we’re at a very unhappy point — a very unhappy point — where unless Israel is prepared to use nuclear weapons against Iran’s program, Iran will have nuclear weapons in the very near future.” So said  Bush’s former UN ambassador  John Bolton at the University of Chicago.

    “Bolton’s use of the n-word is, I believe, new for him, and marks a significant rhetorical escalation from the hawks” says Daniel Luban in this  IPS story.

    Bolton suggests nuclear attack on Iran

    By Daniel Luban

    This Friday, the American Enterprise Institute will host an event addressing the question “Should Israel attack Iran?” The event includes, among others, Iran uberhawk Michael Rubin and infamous “torture lawyer” John Yoo, but the real star is likely to be John Bolton, the former U.N. ambassador whose right-of-Attila views left him an outcast even within the second Bush administration. (Bolton was eventually forced out when it became clear that he would be unable to win Senate confirmation for the U.N. post.)

    If Bolton’s recent rhetoric is any indication, his AEI appearance may accomplish the formidable feat of making Michael Rubin sound like a dove. Discussing Iran during a Tuesday speech at the University of Chicago, Bolton appeared to call for nothing less than an Israeli nuclear first strike against the Islamic Republic. (The speech, sponsored by the University Young Republicans and Chicago Friends of Israel, was titled, apparently without a trace of irony, “Ensuring Peace.”)

    “Negotiations have failed, and so too have sanctions,” Bolton said, echoing his previously-stated belief that sanctions will prove ineffectual in changing Tehran’s behavior. “So we’re at a very unhappy point — a very unhappy point — where unless Israel is prepared to use nuclear weapons against Iran’s program, Iran will have nuclear weapons in the very near future.”

    Bolton made clear that the latter option is unacceptable. “There are some people in the administration who think that it’s not really a problem, we can contain and deter Iran, as we did the Soviet Union during the Cold War. I think this is a great, great mistake and a dangerously weak approach…Whatever else you want to say about them, at least the Soviets believed that they only went around once in this world, and they weren’t real eager to give that up — as compared to a theological regime in Tehran which yearns for life in the hereafter more than life on earth…I don’t think [deterrence] works that way with a country like Iran.”

    While Bolton coyly refused to spell out his conclusion, the implications of his argument were clear. If neither negotiations, nor sanctions, nor deterrence are options, then by his logic the only remaining option is for “Israel…to use nuclear weapons against Iran’s program.”

    Of course, it is nothing new for Bolton and his neoconservative allies to threaten an Israeli strike against Iran. But Bolton’s use of the “n-word” is, I believe, new for him, and marks a significant rhetorical escalation from the hawks. An Israeli strike, nuclear or otherwise, without U.S. permission remains unlikely. But as it often the case, I suspect that Bolton’s intention is less to give an accurate description of reality than it is to stake out positions extreme enough to shift the boundaries of debate as a whole to the right.


  • Obama Reafirms He Will Keep Israel’s Nukes ‘Secret’

    For  declassified top secret 1969 documents about the original US decision to keep Israel’s nukes secret, see this post

    Obama Reaffirms He Will Keep Israel’s Nukes ‘Secret’

    President Vows to Keep World’s Worst-Kept Secret

    from Antiwar.com

    by Jason Ditz, October 02, 200

    Following up on assurances he made in May, President Obama has reportedly ‘reaffirmed’ a secret understanding whereby he will not reveal the existence of Israel’s widely known nuclear arsenal, nor will he pressure Israel to join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

    Though Israel has often, albeit accidentally, publicly revealed that they have nuclear weapons, the United States officially has followed a “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy with the arsenal, the only one of its kind in the Middle East.

    The revelation is likely to cause some international consternation, particularly since President Obama championed a bill at the UN Security Council only last week demanding that all the nations of the world to join the NPT.

    Despite this call, the US publicly and angrily rejected a resolution calling for Israel to join the NPT only a week before that, saying that it was “unfair.” Israel has ruled out ever opening up its arsenal to the same international scrutiny as NPT signatories do.

  • Australia’s uranium enrichment goes commercial – SILEX

    Few people realise  that revolutionary Australian laser technology  is on the verge of  producing enough enriched uranium to supply all of Austalia’s electricity needs, under licence in the US.

    For years SILEX have semi-secretly developed laser uranium enrichment at Lucas Heights in Sydney, and their “test loop” commercial prototype is already operating in America, under an exclusive licence agreement with Global Laser Enrichment (GLE).   Results are so encouraging they applied to US nuclear regulators in 2009 to build a full-scale plant capable of producing 6 million SWUs of enriched uranium  Roughly 100,000 SWUs will run a 1,000 MW nuclear reactor for a year – the annual output will thus run about 50 large nuclear power plants.  NRC approval is expected in 2012, construction may begin before that, and in 2013 a major source of  US fuel will disappear when the downgrading  of old Soviet high-enriched warheads finishes – as General Electric helpfully points out.

    Global Laser Enrichment is a business venture of  General Electric (51%), Hitachi (25%) and Canada’s  Camenco (24%)

    Extracts from SILEX’s 2009 Uranium Enrichmen update

    The Test Loop is designed to validate the commercial feasibility of the SILEX Technology and advance the design of the equipment, facility and processes for the planned commercial production facility.  GLE anticipates  obtaining sufficient data from the Test Loop by the end of 2009 to decide whether to proceed with plans for a full-scale commercial enrichment facility.

    Progress with Commercial Production Facility Plans: A separate team continues to progress plans for a commercial production facility in parallel with Test Loop activities. If a decision is made to proceed with a commercial facility, GLE plans to co-locate the facility on the site of the existing nuclear fuel manufacturing facilities of Global Nuclear Fuel and the new plants and services business of GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy, headquartered in Wilmington N.C. Subject to the decision to proceed, the GLE commercial production facility would have a target capacity of 3.5 million to 6 million separative work units (SWU’s).  A SWU is a unit measuring the energy used to enrich uranium, which is then fabricated into fuel assemblies for nuclear power plants.

    As previously disclosed (refer ASX release 31/7/09), GLE is expected to refine its projected schedule at  the end of 2009.  If the decision is made to proceed with the commercial production facility, the schedule would be determined in part by the licensing process, expected to take approximately 30 months from August 17, 2009, the date that the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) formally accepted the license application submitted by GLE.  Accordingly, GLE would expect the timing for receiving an NRC license to be the end of 2011 or the beginning of 2012.  Subject to proceeding,  GLE could begin construction of  certain ancillary facilities with NRC permission  including site preparation,  prior to receiving the license. More detailed information on the schedule is expected to be available from GLE in late 2009.

  • Israeli Navy in Indian Ocean for possible attack on Iran

    Confirming earlier reports that an Israeli nuclear-weapons Dolphin submarine crossed the Suez  canal for a potential attack on Iran, The Times now reports that two missile-carrying warships have joined it. It also alleges that “Western diplomats are offering support for an Israeli strike on Iran in return for Israeli concessions on the formation of a Palestinian state”

    Israeli navy in Suez Canal prepares for potential attack on Iran – Times Online.

    Two Israeli missile class warships have sailed through the Suez Canal ten days after a submarine capable of launching a nuclear missile strike, in preparation for a possible attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

    The deployment into the Red Sea, confirmed by Israeli officials, was a clear signal that Israel was able to put its strike force within range of Iran at short notice. It came before long-range exercises by the Israeli air force in America later this month and the test of a missile defence shield at a US missile range in the Pacific Ocean.

    Israel has strengthened ties with Arab nations who also fear a nuclear-armed Iran. In particular, relations with Egypt have grown increasingly strong this year over the “shared mutual distrust of Iran”, according to one Israeli diplomat. Israeli naval vessels would likely pass through the Suez Canal for an Iranian strike.

    “This is preparation that should be taken seriously. Israel is investing time in preparing itself for the complexity of an attack on Iran. These manoeuvres are a message to Iran that Israel will follow up on its threats,” an Israeli defence official said.

    It is believed that Israel’s missile-equipped submarines, and its fleet of advanced aircraft, could be used to strike at in excess of a dozen nuclear-related targets more than 800 miles from Israel.

    Ahmed Aboul Gheit, the Egyptian Foreign Minister, said that his Government explicitly allowed passage of Israeli vessels, and an Israeli admiral said that the drills were “run regularly with the full co-operation of the Egyptians.”

    Two Israeli Saar class missile boats and a Dolphin class submarine have passed through Suez. Israel has six Dolphin-class submarines, three of which are widely believed to carry nuclear missiles.

    Israel will also soon test an Arrow interceptor missile on a US missile range in the Pacific Ocean. The system is designed to defend Israel from ballistic missile attacks by Iran and Syria. Lieutenant-General Patrick O’Reilly, the director of the Pentagon’s Missile Defence Agency, said that Israel would test against a target with a range of more than 630 miles (1,000km) — too long for previous Arrow test sites in the eastern Mediterranean.

    The Israeli air force, meanwhile, will send F16C fighter jets to participate in exercises at Nellis Air Force base in Nevada this month. Israeli C130 Hercules transport aircraft will also compete in the Rodeo 2009 competition at McChord Air Force base in Washington.

    “It is not by chance that Israel is drilling long-range manoeuvres in a public way. This is not a secret operation. This is something that has been published and which will showcase Israel’s abilities,” said an Israeli defence official.

    He added that in the past, Israel had run a number of covert long-range drills. A year ago, Israeli jets flew over Greece in one such drill, while in May, reports surfaced that Israeli air force aircraft were staging exercises over Gibraltar. An Israeli attack on a weapons convoy in Sudan bound for militants in the Gaza Strip earlier this year was also seen as a rehearsal for hitting moving convoys.

    The exercises come at a time when Western diplomats are offering support for an Israeli strike on Iran in return for Israeli concessions on the formation of a Palestinian state.

    If agreed it would make an Israeli strike on Iran realistic “within the year” said one British official.

    Diplomats said that Israel had offered concessions on settlement policy, Palestinian land claims and issues with neighboring Arab states, to facilitate a possible strike on Iran.

    “Israel has chosen to place the Iranian threat over its settlements,” said a senior European diplomat.

  • Iran arming Taliban – Washington officials renew false Bush allegations

    Defence Secretary Robert Gates told reporters in Brussels Jun. 12, “Iran is playing a double game” in Afghanistan by “sending in a relatively modest level of weapons and capabilities to attack ISAF (International Security Assistance Force) and coalition forces”. The  Bush administration also charged  that Iran was supplying sophisticated bombs and anti-armour weapons to the Taliban, while at the same time the Pentagon disputed such evidence-free “intelligence assessments” of “suspected” support.

    Shia Iran is fundamentally opposed to the Sunni Taliban, and has given the US considerable support in its Afghanistan operations since 2001

    A detailed discussion here also casts doubt on these allegations. “You have one discourse of officials in Afghanistan, who would support collaboration with Iran,” Dorronsoro said in an interview with IPS. “It’s very clear that those people don’t want a crisis with Iran and don’t want to push Iran too far.”

    But those who want to put pressure on Iran to stop its enrichment program, he said, “are acting as though they are building some kind of legal case against Iran.”

  • U.S. grants support Iranian dissidents

    Western politicians and media scoff at accusations of foreign meddling in Iranian politics.  But the Obama administration is openly continuing Bush’s funding for “encouraging democracy” in Iran, programmes announced to encourage regime change. The Bush program “was a horrible idea,”  says the biggest US-Iranian lobby group.  “It made human rights activists and non-governmental organizations targets.”

    from USA TODAY:

    U.S. grants support Iranian dissidents – USATODAY.com.

    U.S. grants support Iranian dissidents

    By Ken Dilanian, USA TODAY

    WASHINGTON — The Obama administration is moving forward with plans to fund groups that support Iranian dissidents, records and interviews show, continuing a program that became controversial when it was expanded by President Bush.

    The U.S. Agency for International Development USAID, which reports to the secretary of state, has for the last year been soliciting applications for $20 million in grants to “promote democracy, human rights, and the rule of law in Iran,” according to documents on the agency’s website. The final deadline for grant applications is June 30.

    MORE: USAID report on support to Iranian dissidents

    U.S. efforts to support Iranian opposition groups have been criticized in recent years as veiled attempts to promote “regime change,” said Trita Parsi, president of the National Iranian American Council, the largest Iranian-American advocacy group. The grants enable Iran’s rulers to paint opponents as tools of the United States, he said.

    Although the Obama administration has not sought to continue the Iran-specific grants in its 2010 budget, it wants a $15 million boost for the Near Eastern Regional Democracy Initiative, which has similar aims but does not specify the nations involved. Some of that money will be targeted at Iran, said David Carle, a spokesman for the appropriations subcommittee that oversees foreign affairs.

    “Part of it is to expand access to information and communications through the Internet for Iranians,” Carle said in an e-mail.

    President Obama said this week the United States “is not at all interfering in Iran’s affairs,” rejecting charges of meddling that were renewed Thursday by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

    Asked how the democracy promotion initiatives square with the president’s statement, White House spokesman Tommy Vietor said, “Let’s be clear: The United States does not fund any movement, faction or political party in Iran. We support … universal principles of human rights, freedom of speech, and rule of law.”

    State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said, “Respecting Iran’s sovereignty does not mean our silence on issues of fundamental rights and freedoms, such as the right to peacefully protest.”

    The Bush program “was a horrible idea,” Parsi said. “It made human rights activists and non-governmental organizations targets.”

    Not so, said David Denehy, the former Republican political consultant and State Department official who used to oversee the spending. “To say that we were the cause of repression in Iran is laughable … Our programs sent a message to the people of Iran that we supported their requests for personal freedom,” he said.

    The State Department and USAID decline to name Iran-related grant recipients for security reasons.

    After Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced a major expansion of the program in 2006 — Congress eventually approved $66 million — the Iranian government arrested activists and closed down their organizations. Several Iranian dissidents, including former political prisoner Akbar Ganji, denounced the U.S. funding as counterproductive.

    Some in Congress are happy the program is continuing.

    “As the Iranian regime cracks down on its people, I strongly believe that we should be prepared to extend our hand in help and support to any Iranian civil society group that reaches out for it,” Sen. Joseph Lieberman, wrote in an e-mail to USA TODAY.

    Most of the money likely hasn’t reached Iran but went instead to Washington-based groups, said Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert who reviewed applications for the democracy program before leaving the State Department for the Brookings Institution. The United States lacks the insight to influence Iran’s internal politics, she said.

    “We have such limited penetration of Iranian politics,” she said. “We are so poorly positioned to add any value.”

  • Iran’s nuclear weapon ‘blueprints’ found by Western intel services

    A report to Congress’ Foreign Relations committee says allied intelligence (presumably Israeli) have obtained blueprints for a nuclear warhead from two sources in Iran, which match each other “down to the last millimeter”. If true, this is validation of the claims in the “smoking laptop affair”, but no evidence is presented. The report also says “Many have doubts about whether Iran has a design for a workable nuclear warhead”.

    Extract from Iran: Where We Are Today published May 4 2009   pg 5

    Iran denies any military role in its nuclear efforts and so far no one has uncovered proof to the contrary. There is, however, a strong circumstantial case for military in-volvement, which may or may not have stopped when the weaponization work ended in late 2003. Potentially damning evidence surfaced in 2004 when U.S. intelligence obtained a laptop computer that it said had come from an Iranian engineer. The computer contained thousands of pages of data on tests of high explosives and designs for a missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. It also contained videos of what were described as secret workshops around Iran where the weapons work was supposedly carried out.

    Some of those documents as well as intelligence material from other countries were shared with the IAEA, which refers to them in its official reports as the ‘‘alleged studies.’’ When the agency provided copies of some documents to Iran, the Iranians denounced them as fakes. Senior UN officials and foreign intelligence officials who have seen many of the documents told the committee staff that it is impossible to rule out an elaborate intelligence ruse.

    But they said the documents come from more than just the laptop and appear to be authentic, right down to the names, addresses and telephone numbers of the workshops in Iran.

    A senior allied intelligence official said the documents contained blueprints for a nuclear warhead that was a perfect match—‘‘down to the last millimeter’’—with designs his agency had obtained from other sources inside Iran (my emphasis). Another document tracked the flight path for a missile, with notations that its warhead would detonate 600 meters above the ground, according to foreign intelligence officials and UN officials. That height would render a conventional explosive ineffective, but would be the optimum elevation for a nuclear weapon intended to wipe out a city.